Tension in Iran, recovery in crypto – and what it means
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are rising.
After U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets, fears have increased that Iran may retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil exports flow. Such a blockade would directly impact oil prices, global energy security, and inflation expectations worldwide.
The market didn’t sit still. Investors sought safety, offloading their most liquid positions. Bitcoin took a hit, falling below $98,200 — a level widely seen as the average entry point for active holders, and therefore a psychological threshold.
Still, panic didn’t follow.
BTC quickly recovered above $101,000 and held that level — even while traditional markets remained closed.
ETF inflows stayed strong. Ethereum posted its ninth consecutive week of positive net inflows. Institutional investors stepped in.
Not in spite of the tensions, but because of their trust in digital infrastructure.
Meanwhile, markets look ahead.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress this week.
Political pressure to cut rates is growing — especially with Trump’s 90-day tariff pause set to expire on July 9.
If tariffs return, inflation could be pushed up again. On Friday, we’ll get the Core PCE reading — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
A 0.1% rise is expected, but July may bring the real test.
Despite the uncertainty, crypto funds saw $1.2 billion in inflows last week.
Of that, $1.1 billion went into Bitcoin. Ethereum also attracted strong inflows and continues to trend upward. Investors seem to be looking beyond short-term volatility.
They see underlying fundamentals.
One notable development: Texas — whose economy is larger than that of countries like Canada — has passed legislation to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Tens of millions in state capital are expected to be invested. It’s a signal: Governments are now adopting crypto on their balance sheets. Not just private adoption — but public involvement.
The market remains alert.
But for those looking closely, the biggest shift isn’t the dip — it’s the rebound.
Not the stress — but the structure.
